Tournament Preview

I am glad these games didn't count in my bracket pools since I would be 0-2 going into Wednesday night's action.  In the opener  Manhattan trailed lowly Hampton the entire game in the first of the 2 First Round (or play-in games as they used to be known).  The Pirates went on to win 74-64 and will face Kentucky on Thursday.  Game 2 was utterly unbelievable as BYU jumped out to an early lead against Mississippi, but possibly forgot that college basketball games are in fact, 40 minutes long and squandered a 17-point halftime lead falling 94-90 and losing a spot in the big dance.  Mississippi moves on to face Xavier in what should be another close game for Ole Miss.  The teams are nearly identical when it comes to points scored and points allowed per game.

Wednesday's games were just as exciting.  Dayton defeated Boise State 56-55 advancing to face Providence on Friday.   Robert Morris took down North Florida 81-77.  Had these games counted I would have gone 0-for-4.    With that being said,  here are my picks for this year's tournament which are surely to be much different than what actually happens if these first 4 games are any indication.

First Round Thursday March 19 2015

My rank Team                               RPI        PPG      Rank   PAPG   Rank  

58	Northeastern	86	68.6	76	65.0	64
9	Notre Dame	16	78.8	10	65.6	69

I have to go with Notre Dame in this one.  This looks like 2 of the play-in games where I picked the team with the better offense to win.

65	UAB	129	68.9	73	67.7	90
8	Iowa State	9	78.4	11	69.3	106

Despite Iowa State's dismal defensive ranking, UAB's isn't much better and Iowa State should win.

38	Georgia State	53	72.0	45	62.2	37
15	Baylor	10	69.5	68	60.3	23

This one could be interesting, although I'm going with Baylor. I have them ranked higher and they have a better defense.

66	Texas Southern	118	68.2	80	67.4	87
5	Arizona	5	76.4	19	58.6	14

Arizona, handily

48	Texas	42	67.9	83	60.4	24
34	Butler	31	69.6	67	61.2	29

This one is a tough pick.  Texas is only marginally worse offensively, and marginally better defensivley.  I'm going with them though, against my system and perhaps my better judgment.

44	UCLA	48	72.0	45	68.0	93
18	Southern Methodist	12	69.4	69	59.8	20

Ah, the team everyone hates in this tournament takes on SMU.  Someone on ESPN lost his mind about UCLA being in the tourney, and hopefully this will be their only game.  SMU.

47	Mississippi	60	72.6	40	67.5	88
29	Xavier	30	73.6	34	67.6	89

Ole Miss earned their way win after their miraculous comeback Tuesday, and on paper, another even defensive matchup.  I'm taking Xavier.

22	Ohio State	41	75.8	21	62.4	39
17	Virginia Commonwealth	15	72.5	41	65.5	68

Ohio State.  My system says take VCU, but they are only 5 spots above OSU, who was better at scoring and defense this year. Thank the RPI for putting VCU higher.

63	Lafayette	122	74.2	29	72.4	132
2	Villanova	2	76.3	20	60.9	28

The battle of Eastern Pennsylvania taking place in Western Pennsylvania.   Villanova should take this one.

49	Purdue	55	70.0	63	64.5	59
51	Cincinnati	37	62.4	132	55.3	6

I like Purdue although Cincy's defense is one the tops in the country.  UC may not have the offense to win.  

54	Harvard	52	64.2	118	57.2	12
10	North Carolina	11	77.9	14	68.4	97

I am having a hard time with this one.  It looks like a potential upset on paper, but Harvard will need to score.  I'll go with Carolina.

11	Stephen F. Austin	33	79.5	8	64.3	60
19	Utah	19	72.1	44	56.9	11

This one is going to be interesting.  I really like Utah's stat line and think they are poised to go deep in this tournament.

39	LSU	57	73.7	33	67.7	90
40	North Carolina State	39	70.4	60	65.4	67

I may have LSU ranked ahead, but I'm going with NC State.  Better defense should prevail.

68	Hanpton	251	67.2	89	68.0	93
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

Cats will remain unbeaten. 

50	Wofford	47	67.0	91	59.8	20
14	Arkansas	20	78.0	13	70.1	111

Looks like the Harvard-UNC matchup.  Wofford will have to score more. Not only that they lost to Duke by 30 in the regular season.  It's one thing to hold teams like Citadel to under 60 a game, it's another holding the likes of Arkansas down.

33	Eastern Washinton	74	80.8	3	73.6	140
32	Georgetown	25	70.7	58	64.6	60

So Eastern Washington's head coach is guaranteeing a win.  I'd like to see that.  No wait, I wouldn't.  Hoyas are my pick.

Friday March 20 2015

59	New Mexico State	103	68.5	77	59.3	16
6	Kansas	3	71.2	53	64.7	61

Remember that time a little school out of Richmond, Kentucky almost beat Kansas in the first round last year?  I do.  I'm taking New Mexico State in the first of 2 super-bold picks in this tournament.  You read it here first.

45	Georgia	38	68.3	79	64.2	56
26	Michigan State	23	71.9	46	63.4	49

Michigan State is higher-ranked an better at scoring and defense.  Chalk up a W for Sparty.

60	Wyoming	71	61.7	139	56.0	8
27	Northern Iowa	13	65.4	101	54.3	4

In what should be the lowest scoring game of the tournament, Northern Iowas wins 37-34.  Just kidding about that score.  They haven't played yet.  

25	Buffalo	28	75.0	25	68.3	96
23	West Virginia	24	73.9	31	66.8	81

Watch out West Virginia, the Bulls (Buffalo, not Chicago), are coming for you!  It should be a good game.  The committee is not making it easy to pick these first round games, but I'm trustiing my system and picking West Virginia although it wouldn't be much of an upset if Buffalo wins.  Tough game.

35	Indiana	61	77.5	15	71.4	123
24	Wichita State	17	69.7	66	55.8	7

Anyone sick of Wichita State yet?  I'm not.  I'll take them over the Hoosiers.

55	Belmont	105	74.5	28	70.3	112
16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1

Wake me when this one is over.  Actually I have high hopes for Virginia in this tournament.  They better win.

57	California Irvine	88	67.9	83	62.3	38
30	Louisville	21	69.2	71	59.5	18

Louisville lucked out with this first round matchup.  The committee really could have given them a tougher opponent based on their showing (or lack thereof) in the ACC tournament.  L yes.

43	Valparaiso	50	69.8	65	59.3	16
21	Maryland	13	69.5	68	63.2	47

Valpo.  

52	Oklahoma State	49	67.3	88	62.3	38
28	Oregon	27	75.6	23	70.7	116

I'm taking what I learned last year and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Giddyup!

67	Robert Morris	171	69.0	72	67.7	90
3	Duke	6	80.6	4	65.6	69

At least Duke won't lose to a 15-seed this year, which is exactly why they were given a 1-seed.

13	Davidson	35	79.9	6	69.0	103
41	Iowa	43	69.4	69	61.9	35

Again, I am taking what I learned last year and the Iowa Hawkeyes.

61	Albany	99	65.5	105	60.2	22
20	Oklahoma	18	71.9	46	62.8	43

Last year I liked Oklahoma.  I don't necessarily this year although their numbers are better defensively.  Sooners should prevail in a low-scoring affair...

56	Coastal Carolina	130	71.7	48	61.7	34
7	Wisconsin	4	71.9	46	56.1	9

The Badgers may be a force to be reckoned with.  

46	St. John's	44	71.2	53	67.6	89
42	San Diego State	26	61.8	137	53.1	2

Again, the committee isn't making this easy.  I'll  take San Diego State.

62	North Dakota State	92	64.5	115	61.6	33
4	Gonzaga	8	79.1	9	60.9	28

Gonzaga.  They may go to the Final Four.  They are legit, defeated BYU by 20 in their conference tournament final,,

37	Dayton	32	68.2	80	60.9	28
31	Providence	22	70.2	62	65.5	68

Dayton's nail-biter victory has convinced me that I don't really know what I'm doing.  So, I will take them over Providence.  That and are better defensively.  

Second Round  Saturday March 21 2015

I am going to assume all of my picks are right, which they aren't.  But this is really the fun part:  narrowing the field to 16 after 4 days of play.

48	Texas	42	67.9	83	60.4	24
9	Notre Dame	16	78.8	10	65.6	69

Anyone else like Texas?  No?  I do.

18	Southern Methodist	12	69.4	69	59.8	20
8	Iowa State	9	78.4	11	69.3	106

Won't be much of an upset when SMU beats then.  That's not an if,  

29	Xavier	30	73.6	34	67.6	89
15	Baylor	10	69.5	68	60.3	23

Last year so few teams ranked in the 80's and lower in PAPG advanced beyond the 2nd round it's hard for me to take them this year.  Baylor.

22	Ohio State	41	75.8	21	62.4	39
5	Arizona	5	76.4	19	58.6	14

I really like Arizona.

40	North Carolina State	39	70.4	60	65.4	67
2	Villanova	2	76.3	20	60.9	28

Nova came, Nova saw, Nova conquered.

49	Purdue	55	70.0	63	64.5	59
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

Kentucky should have been given 3 or 4 byes in this thing.

14	Arkansas	20	78.0	13	70.1	111
10	North Carolina	11	77.9	14	68.4	97

Committee, you're killing me.  Last year so few teams ranked in the 80's and lower in PAPG..., oh I just said that a couple of games ago.  Toss up, I'll go with Carolina,

32	Georgetown	25	70.7	58	64.6	60
19	Utah	19	72.1	44	56.9	11

I'm telling you, Utah could go deep.  

Sunday March 22 2015

59	New Mexico State	103	68.5	77	59.3	16
24	Wichita State	17	69.7	66	55.8	7

With Kansas out, Wichita State advances.  Which they should even if Kansas beats New Mexico State.

26	Michigan State	23	71.9	46	63.4	49
16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1

Tom Izzo is a great tournament coach, but Virginia is very tough.  Cavaliers.

30	Louisville	21	69.2	71	59.5	18
27	Northern Iowa	13	65.4	101	54.3	4

You would think that Louisville has the edge here but Northern Iowa advances..

43	Valparaiso	50	69.8	65	59.3	16
23	West Virginia	24	73.9	31	66.8	81

Last year so few teams ranked in the 80's or lower in PAPG, etc, etc.  Valparaiso wins.

52	Oklahoma State	49	67.3	88	62.3	38
7	Wisconsin	4	71.9	46	56.1	9

I like Wisconsin.  A lot.

42	San Diego State	26	61.8	137	53.1	2
3	Duke	6	80.6	4	65.6	69

Remember that time last year when Duke lost to 15-seed Mercer?  Me too.  San Diego State knocks off Duke.  Read it here first.  

41	Iowa	43	69.4	69	61.9	35
4	Gonzaga	8	79.1	9	60.9	28

Gonzaga is better all around.  

20	Oklahoma	18	71.9	46	62.8	43
37	Dayton	32	68.2	80	60.9	28

Dayton.  May as well.  If I don't pick them they will win.  It's like they hate me.

Sweet 16 Thursday March 26 and Friday March 27 2015

48	Texas	42	67.9	83	60.4	24
24	Wichita State	17	69.7	66	55.8	7

Wichita State goes on to the Elite 8.

18	Southern Methodist	12	69.4	69	59.8	20
4	Gonzaga	8	79.1	9	60.9	28

This one could be a toss up, but I like Gonzaga.

15	Baylor	10	69.5	68	60.3	23
5	Arizona	5	76.4	19	58.6	14

Arizona.  

27	Northern Iowa	13	65.4	101	54.3	4
2	Villanova	2	76.3	20	60.9	28

Despite Northern Iowa's tough defense, I'm reluctantly taking Villanova.  I have them ranked #2.

43	Valparaiso	50	69.8	65	59.3	16
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

Seriously, like 3 byes.  In all fairness, Kentucky is a really good team, and all of their opponents are looking to end the winning streak and will elevate their games to make UK earn those wins.  Things will not be easy for UK from here on out.

10	North Carolina	11	77.9	14	68.4	97
7	Wisconsin	4	71.9	46	56.1	9

I think North Carolina is good, but I think Wisconsin is better.

42	San Diego State	26	61.8	137	53.1	2
19	Utah	19	72.1	44	56.9	11

Utah is going deep.  They could probably handle Duke should they be Utah's opponent.

37	Dayton	32	68.2	80	60.9	28
16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1

Well, Dayton it's been real.  I won't doubt you next year.  

Elite 8 Saturday March 28 and Sunday March 29

24	Wichita State	17	69.7	66	55.8	7
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

UK should prevail.

19	Utah	19	72.1	44	56.9	11
4	Gonzaga	8	79.1	9	60.9	28

My system says Gonzaga, defense points to Utah.  I'll take the Utes to the Final 4.

5	Arizona	5	76.4	19	58.6	14
7	Wisconsin	4	71.9	46	56.1	9

This is as good as it gets.  Too bad this isn't for the national championship.  I like Arizona even though my system and defense sides with Wisconsin.

16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1
2	Villanova	2	76.3	20	60.9	28

I think Villanova's run ends here.  Virginia's defense has been stifling all year and takes them to the Final Four.

Final Four Saturday April 4

5	Arizona	5	76.4	19	58.6	14
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

Arizona is definitely the toughest opponent UK has faced all year, but I think the magical run for Kentuckt continues and they play for the championship on Monday night.

19	Utah	19	72.1	44	56.9	11
16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1

Utah probably won't make it this far, but if they do, Virginia will beat them in a low-scoring battle.

National Championship Monday April 6 2015

16	Virginia	7	65.3	107	50.8	1
1	Kentucky	1	74.9	26	54.0	3

Great teams make it look easy.  UK goes undefeated and are college basketball's national champions for 2015.

Well that was fun.  I have definitely spent way too much time on this.  

Thanks for reading and best of luck to you in your pools!

Kurt