For the second year in a row I have to decided to employ a formula to determine the winner of this year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The formula is based on 5 simple and readily available numbers: RPI, points scored per game, points allowed per game, and each team's national ranking in both of the latter categories. Last year saw some interesting results stemming from ranking the field this way, but I was also able to get a pretty good gauge on being able to accurately predict the winners of each game, See my previous post for details. I posted it after the tournament was over so you, the reader, and I could see where I made my mistakes. This year I want to do better and am confident I will do so. Unfortunately, Warren Buffet is not offering a billion dollars to anyone submitting a perfect bracket. Oh well, I guess I'll just take my pool's money instead!
Here we go:
The first play-in game Tuesday March 17th features the Manhattan Jaspers vs. Hampton Pirates. The winner earns a 16 seed with their next game Thursday vs. number 1 overall seed and undefeated Kentucky.
(My rank to left) RPI PPG Rank PAG Rank
64 Manhattan 168 69.9 64 67.5 88
68 Hampton 251 67.2 89 68.0 93
A couple of real heavyweights set to square off, in fact, Hampton had a losing record on the season, finished 6th in the MEAC, but managed to win the conference tournament earning an automatic bid. I would be very surprised if Hampton wins. Manhattan is ranked higher by me, the RPI, and score more and allow fewer points per game.
The second play-in involves Ole Miss and BYU vying for an 11-seed with the winner advancing to face 6-seed Xavier on Thursday.
RPI PPG Rank PAG Rank
12 Brigham Young 36 83.6 2 72.6 133
48 Mississippi 60 72.6 40 67.5 88
Last year my system became exposed when higher-ranked teams with strong offenses and poor defenses fell to lower-ranked teams with better defenses fairly consistently. This usually held for teams with good defenses and I think BYU wins this one.
Game 3 sees North Florida taking on Robert Morris competing for a 16-seed with the opportunity to play 1-seed Duke on Friday.
RPI PPG Rank PAG Rank
54 North Florida 162 75.7 22 67.8 91
67 Robert Morris 171 69.0 72 67.7 90
Easy to see how North Florida gets my nod in this one. Nearly identically defensively, UNF has the edge offensively.
Wednesday's 2nd game pits Boise State vs, Dayton squaring off to become an 11-seed and face Providence on Friday.
RPI PPG Rank PAG Rank
37 Boise State 40 70.8 57 60.3 23
38 Dayton 32 68.2 80 60.9 28
Again, the teams are nearly identical with regards to defense, but Boise State should prevail. Dayton surprised everyone by beating Ohio State last year on the 2nd day of the tournament, but shouldn't make it into this year's.
Thanks for reading and keep checking back. I'll post my picks and results as tournament goes along.
Kurt
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